Technical approach

Utilizing the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop modelling software, we are modelling peanut-cotton crop rotations that support or directly include livestock grazing as a management practice and compare this to systems which are solely growing peanut-cotton rotations with winter fallow. Combining these simulations with USDA NASS surveys of crop prices and input costs allows us to use Monte Carlo models to determine probability distributions of profit under our contrasting systems and assess risk, particularly in years of poor crop performance. We can further simulate these systems under varying weather conditions, particularly drought, to understand how integrated crop-livestock systems may support more sustainable and less volatile enterprises.

Expected outcomes

• Economic models and probability distributions of profit under conventional and integrated crop-livestock systems
• Recommendations for improved risk assessment in integrated crop-livestock systems, particularly in support of improved index-based crop insurance models
• Comprehensive meta-analysis of the reported economic outcomes of integrating crops and grazing livestock in global systems

Impact

By quantifying the potential profit stabilization of these integrated systems, we may improve risk assessment and planning, particularly in the crop insurance industry. Moreover, the recommendations we make to utilize EO systems will further help to improve monitoring efforts.